UFC Vegas 106 Predictions, Betting Guide & Podcast

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Do you want to make more money? Sure, we all do.

But you don’t have to call the number in that video link - I’ve got you covered right here, with my UFC Vegas 106 predictions. I’m hitting at a 65% clip this year (and 62% over my career - 2600+ fights!) picking winners for every UFC fight, so obviously, I’m a genius and/or a soothsayer. If you’re a degen and want to put some money down on the fights this weekend, here are my picks for every fight. Plus, I’ve embedded the MMA Gambling Podcast that I host at the bottom of the article.

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Overall Record: 1636-1050 (62%)

2025 Record: 124-68 (65%)

Access my UFC gambling analytics spreadsheet here - over three years of data from UFC fights that help you make winning picks.

Enter my free UFC Vegas 106 Pick ‘Em Contest here!

Main Card

Michael Morales (-770) vs Gilbert Burns

This is the proper use of a veteran UFC fighter on the downslope of their career, but still with some name recognition - feed them to a young up-and-comer.

This fight is closer than the odds hint at, but Michael Morales is still going to win. He’s 13 years younger than Burns, has an eight-inch reach advantage, and is a knockout machine. Take him via T/KO for a better line.

Rodolfo Bellato (-535) vs Paul Craig

The co-main event is similar to what I wrote about the main, except Paul Craig never reached the heights that Gilbert Burns did.

Craig also never learned to strike. Rodolfo Bellato is going to tear him apart on the feet.

Mairon Santos (-135) vs Sodiq Yusuff

This is a big step up for TUF champ Mairon Santos, but he’s got key factors in his favour in this matchup with veteran Sodiq Yusuff. Yusuff has been out of action for over a year, has dropped two straight, including being knocked out in his last fight, and is seven years older than Santos. And Santos is explosive and on the rise.