UFC Mexico City Predictions, Betting Guide & Podcast

The octagon heads south

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But you don’t have to call the number in that video link - I’ve got you covered right here, with my UFC Mexico City predictions. I’m hitting at a 58% clip this year (and 61% over my career - 2600+ fights!) picking winners for every UFC fight, so obviously, I’m a genius and/or a soothsayer. If you’re a degen and want to put some money down on the fights this weekend, here are my picks for every fight. Plus, I’ve embedded the MMA Gambling Podcast that I host at the bottom of the article.

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Overall Record: 1581-1031 (61%)

2025 Record: 69-49 (58%)

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Main Card

Brandon Moreno (-240) vs Steve Erceg

Steve Erceg is paying the price for skipping steps in his development and being pushed into a UFC title fight too early. It's not his fault, but he’s worse off for it. Now, instead of taking steps back to fight lower-level fighters and work on his game, he's up against Brandon Moreno.

The former two-time champ should be able to handle Erceg on his home soil, as I like his game both on the feet and the ground better. A -240 line is a little steep though.

Manuel Torres (+100) vs Drew Dober

Now this is a line I can get behind! Drew Dober’s chin seems to finally be showing signs of all the wear and tear, having been TKO’d in two of his last three fights. And the much younger Manuel Torres can’t just crack - he’s also a threat on the mat.