UFC Gambling Analytics - Updated After UFC Vegas 98
The numbers you need heading into UFC Vegas 99
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Whether you gamble on fights or just play in the weekly UFC Pick ‘Em I run, it helps to know what info is worth considering and which is worth discarding when you’re trying to determine who is going to win a fight.
Lucky for you, I’ve done all this hard work for you already. I’ve been crunching the numbers for the past 2000+ UFC fights from 2021 to the present, kept what stats were useful to predict a winner and tossed aside the ones that weren’t. Now I’m sharing it with you, my lovely reader.
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I’ll update this data after every UFC event, so this will be a living, breathing thing. Below is a simple breakdown of the stats for 2021 onward, plus another file for 2024 only. And I’ve included a bit of a legend explaining what each stat entails.
Any questions or other stats you’d like to see tracked, holler in the comments below!
Since so many hours have been put into this work, it is available for paying subscribers only - but I charge the lowest rate possible on Substack - only $50/year!
Legend
Favourite = betting favourite heading into fight
Younger = fighter was younger than opponent
Five Years = fighter was five years younger or more than opponent
Striking = fighter had better career striking stats (as per UFC Stats) than opponent
Grappling = fighter had better UFC career grappling stats than opponent
Consensus = myself and my MMA Gambling Podcast cohost picked same fighter to win
Missed Weight = fighter missed weight heading into the fight
Strike Differential = fighter has a better UFC career strike differential (strikes landed minus absorbed) than opponent
Late Replacement = fighter took the fight on less than a month’s notice
Year Off = fighter was inactive more than a year before fight
Stats = fighter lead in more of the above stat categories than opponent
Men’s Fav = betting favourite heading into fight
Women’s Fav = same as above, but for women's fights
UPDATED AFTER UFC Vegas 98
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