UFC Gambling Analytics For UFC Baku

The numbers you need heading into Saturday

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Whether you gamble on fights or play in the weekly UFC Pick ‘Em I run, it helps to know what information is worth considering and which is worth discarding when determining who will win a fight.

Lucky for you, I’ve already done all this hard work for you. I’ve been crunching the numbers for over 2,000 UFC fights from 2021 to the present, keeping only the stats that were useful in predicting a winner and discarding the ones that weren’t. Now I’m sharing it with you, my lovely reader.

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I’ll update this data after every UFC event, so it'll be a living, breathing document. Below is a simple breakdown of the stats for 2021 onward, plus another file for 2025 only. And I’ve included a bit of a legend explaining what each stat entails.

If you have any questions or other stats you’d like to see tracked, holler in the comments below!

Since a significant amount of time has been invested in this work, it is available exclusively to paying subscribers. However, I offer the lowest rate possible on Substack, at just $50 per year.

Legend

Favourite = betting favourite heading into fight

Younger = fighter was younger than opponent

Five Years = fighter was five years younger or more than opponent

Striking = fighter had better career striking stats (as per UFC Stats) than opponent

Grappling = fighter had better UFC career grappling stats than opponent

Consensus = myself and my MMA Gambling Podcast cohost picked same fighter to win

Missed Weight = fighter missed weight heading into the fight

Strike Differential = fighter has a better UFC career strike differential (strikes landed minus absorbed) than opponent

Late Replacement = fighter took the fight on less than a month’s notice

Year Off = fighter was inactive more than a year before fight

Stats = fighter lead in more of the above stat categories than opponent

Men’s Fav = betting favourite heading into fight

Women’s Fav = same as above, but for women's fights

UPDATED AFTER UFC Atlanta