UFC Gambling Analytics For UFC 322

The numbers you need heading into Saturday

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Whether you gamble on fights or play in my weekly UFC Pick ‘Em, it helps to know what information is worth considering and which is worth discarding when determining who will win a fight.

Lucky for you, I’ve already done all this hard work for you. I’ve been crunching the numbers for over 2,000 UFC fights from 2021 to the present, keeping only the stats that were useful in predicting a winner and discarding the ones that weren’t. Now I’m sharing it with you, my lovely reader.

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I’ll update this data after every UFC event, so it'll be a living, breathing document. Below is a simple breakdown of the statistics for 2021 and onward, along with an additional file for 2025 only. I’ve included a brief legend that explains what each statistic entails.

If you have any questions or other statistics you’d like to see tracked, please comment below!

Since a significant amount of time has been invested in this work, it is available exclusively to paying subscribers. However, I offer the lowest rate possible on Substack, at just $50 per year.

Legend

Favourite = betting favourite heading into fight

Younger = fighter was younger than opponent

Five Years = fighter was five years younger or more than opponent

Striking = fighter had better career striking stats (as per UFC Stats) than opponent

Grappling = fighter had better UFC career grappling stats than opponent

Consensus = my MMA Gambling Podcast cohost and myself picked same fighter to win

Missed Weight = fighter missed weight heading into the fight

Strike Differential = fighter has a better UFC career strike differential (strikes landed minus absorbed) than opponent

Late Replacement = fighter took the fight on less than a month’s notice

Year Off = fighter was inactive more than a year before fight

Stats = fighter led in more of the above stat categories than opponent

Men’s Fav = betting favourite heading into fight

Women’s Fav = same as above, but for women's fights

UPDATED AFTER UFC Vegas 111