UFC 317 Predictions, Betting Guide & Podcast

Our second PPV this month

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But you don’t have to call the number in that video link - I’ve got you covered right here, with my UFC 317 predictions. I’m hitting at a 65% clip this year (and 61% over my career - 2700+ fights!) picking winners for every UFC fight, so obviously, I’m a genius and/or a soothsayer. If you’re a degen and want to put some money down on the fights this weekend, here are my picks for every fight. Plus, I’ve embedded the MMA Gambling Podcast that I host at the bottom of the article.

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Overall Record: 1673-1069 (61%)

2025 Record: 161-87 (65%)

Access my UFC gambling analytics spreadsheet here - over four years of data from UFC fights that help you make winning picks.

Enter my free UFC 317 Pick ‘Em Contest here!

Main Card

Ilia Topuria (-425) vs Charles Oliveira

(photo by საქართველოს პრეზიდენტის ადმინისტრაცია)

I’m really not a fan of this line. I’m not saying it’s incorrect, but I’m wary of it since we’ve yet to see how Ilia Topuria deals with much bigger fighters at lightweight in the UFC. However, his explosiveness, his ability to excel at all disciplines in the cage, his youth - it all should be too much for a slightly past his prime Charles Oliveira.

Kai Kara-France (+220) vs Alexandre Pantoja

I’m taking a calculated risk in the co-main event. Or, I’m betting on a puncher’s chance. I guess I’m doing both.

Eventually, his age and wear and tear will catch up to Alexandre Pantoja. KKF has the punching power and solid grappling to perhaps be the one who catches him.

Brandon Royval (+102) vs Joshua Van

It really hurts me to pick against Joshua Van, but facing by far the toughest competition in your career on very short notice isn’t a great path to victory. I just wish that Brandon Royval was still available at the big number he originally was.